William Hill Spring Mile and Lincoln (Newcastle 31st Mar 2007)

I've punted in the Lincoln for the last 3 years and apart from a winning selection on St Petersburg at 20/1 which on reflection looked like a lucky guess every year since then I've lost and afterwards I have always felt like a mug for punting in race with so many unknowns.

Now that I take a more logical approach to handicapping and my staking is more "even tempered" before diving into the form for the Spring Mile and Lincoln, I'll use my process to determine what type of horse is needed to win the race I am studying. Here's what I am looking for in theses races

. Horses that can handle the under foot conditions
. Horses that produce their best form when fresh
. Both handicaps are being run on a straight course, determine where the pace is and ignore the draw speculation from the press.

And specifically for the Lincoln

. After the race determine which horses had hard luck stories (due to the draw etc). Use these to form a list of horses that can be followed during the course of the next few months.

2:40 1m - william hill spring mile (handicap) (class 2)

A lot of dross in this race and the chances of many can be discounted. The pace in this race is down the middle.

7/2 Mezuzah, 9/2 Southcape, 5/1 Dancing Lyra, 6/1 Goodbye Mr Bond, 10/1 Dichoh

Mezuzah won it last year and an obvious selection, Southcap runs well fresh and likes heavy ground, Dancing Lyra will also love the ground and shapes as a spring time performer. These horse will be the focus of my attention later this afternoon.

3:55 1m - william hill lincoln (heritage handicap) (class 2)

5/1 My Paris, Zero Tolerance, 6/1 Capable Guest, 7/1 Gentleman's Deal, 10/ Rio Riva, 10/1 Granston, 12/1 Rain Stops Play

I typically oppose horses with form on grass running on an All Weather surface. The other side of the coin is also true so I can't have Gentlemen's Deal. The Pricewise selection Rio Riva is "hold up" performer and drawn low when the pace in the race is on the stands side and a major negative to this selection. Can't dismiss the chances of Capable Guest who ran 3 rd last year. He's had a warm-up race over the jumps.

I have already taken ante-post prices on the following

In any big field event (and especially on soft ground) the place to be is out in front. Step forward My Paris whose best form is on soft ground and is on a winning handicap mark. Zero Tolerance ran 4 th last year and is proven under these conditions and hopefully the race will be run to suit on his side of the draw (high)..