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Thursday, March 29, 2007

Lingfield - (29th March 2007)

As the start of the flat season approaches, Tooting and I have teamed to attack the 2yo division as a “skunk works” R&D project.

The ultimate aim will be to share/exchange knowledge about handicapping 2yo races, hopefully share in the spoils and ultimately select the winner of the 2008 Derby at a tasty ante post price.

We will be aiming our selections at the better class races - though from time to time we may stray down to Class 4. I have set aside a small bank (relatively speaking based on the value of my current bank) for this project.

If you are interested in following the thoughts of others on this subject take a peek at the relevant link on the Racing Forum:
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=42&topic=2032

The first 2yo race of the season starts today so as a pre-match warm up, I’ve decided to start the experiment using some rudimentary ratings I’ve created based on trainer records, breeding etc so buyer beware!

Lingfield 2:50 5f - lingfield park for weddings maiden auction stakes (class 5)

3/1 Dubai Princess, 9/2 Concertmaster, 5/1 Swindon Town Flyer, 7/1 Hucking Harmony, 10/1 Southwest Star

There hasn’t been a wining favourite in this race for a number of years so IF I have a bet I’ll be looking to oppose the jolly using the tissue above. Based on the RP tissue it looks like my two against the jolly are Concertmaster or Hucking Harmony as the trainers of these horses like to get them ready FTO

4:20 1m - doncaster mile (listed race) (class 1)

2/1 Orchard Supreme, 5/2 Bomber Command, 9/2 Impeller

The slow pace will help Bomber Command and blight the stamina of Impeller, but can’t see passed Orchard Supreme. Impeller has an entry in the Lincoln on Saturday so I’m guessing his trainer is keeping that race in reserve depending on how today’s race pans out.

4:50 5f - play golf at lingfield park handicap (class 2)

6/4 Turn On The Style, 5/1 Stoneacre Lad, Graze On, 11/1 Total Impact

Baring an upset, Turn On The Style is set to make mincemeat out of this lot.

If the prices hold, I might play an each-way double using Impeller in the 4:20 and Stoneacre Lad in the 4:50, apart from that its monitoring mode until the start of each race..

1 Comments:

At Thursday, March 29, 2007 11:45:00 am, Blogger Slipperytoad said...

Turn On The Style is a significant non runner in the 4:50. As advised by American handicapping literature, I won’t re-evaluate the race and re-hash the tissue. With that my intended each-way double has gone up in smoke. So, it’s ‘no bet' day today and I’ll merge back into the shadows and wait for another opportunity tomorrow/Saturday

 

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