Warts and All (9th April 2007)

Having time over the Easter break to review my paper records, yet again I’ve experienced an epiphany.

“An epiphany is a sudden realisation or comprehension of the essence or meaning of something. The term is used in either a philosophical or literal sense to signify that the claimant has "found the last piece of the puzzle and now sees the whole picture," or has new information or experience, often insignificant by itself, that illuminates a deeper or numinous foundational frame of reference.”

In my attempts to be more “professional” I have tried to process my handicapping so the said “process” can be measured. I’m an engineer by trade and therefore conditioned not to make decisions without supporting data.

All well and good in theory however, what I have determine is that my continual study of advanced handicapping material from our American friends has cause the process to grow and become impracticable. If I were discussing this problem at work I would use the term “error rate drift” or “creep”.

Handicapping is an imprecise activity, more art that science, opposites logics, “why’s and why not’s” are common when assessing relative abilities of horses. My inexperience at this game has caused continual tweaking (plus changing of ones mind) and this is a sign of wanting to be “right” or to calculate “the correct answer”.

Unfortunately this leads to my indecisiveness and in a business were book makers profits flourish on punters indecisiveness this is a dangerous state to be in. The epiphany for me is that I now know what to do.

After reading a few gambling psychology articles from Dr Howard Sartin (an American psychologist famed for the creation of “win therapy” to cure problem gamblers) his insightful work has made me realise that I have fallen fowl of thinking that handicapping races is just a matter of a creating a mechanical system. Do the same thing consistently and winners will follow.

I’m not about to abandon my process and set sail in crusade of another golden fleece. What I have realised in review of my notes is that I have finished my apprenticeship. I now need to take responsibility for my own betting instead of “adding diverse handicapping methods from a multitude of theories” which has resulted in the Frankenstein monster of a process I have today. The current approach is “just about” profitable based on records thus far but I realised that a break through was required to stop the churn of funds. Maybe this epiphany has come at the correct moment in my handicapping development.

Anybody reading blog in the hope of becoming a professional gamblers should keep notes. Without my records I wouldn’t have recognised that my “true” strength i.e. the thing that is my modus operandi is pace handicapping.

One of Sartin’s lieutenants Jim “The Hat” Bradshaw coined a good phrase which sums up my opinion of the sport of kings

“a horse race is a herd on the move”

My records indicate that I can (with regularity) visualise a race to determine its many different outcomes. The problem was is that I was doing a piss poor job of handicapping the handicappers in trying to replicate or second guess their job which is to determine which horse is well handicapped.

I had lost sight of my value add (pace handicapping) and that fact that my job is to determine (given the conditions of the race) which horse is best suited to take advantage of the “match-up” between the contestants and apply my own handicapping knowledge, expertise and experience to the data. I should also aim to make reference to the handicapping material I have read, categorise for easy recall and apply this knowledge depending on the circumstances. The final act is to secure the best price for my opinion.

In some respects I have come full circle in making some changes to my strategy. Years ago for some strange reason (or I read it somewhere) that understanding the pace of the race was key to its outcome and betting two horses to win (as advocated by Sartin) in each race was a prudent approach. Somehow I have deviated from this approach which was successful all those years ago.

If you’ve been reading my blog for the last three years this entry will come as no surprise as I’ve often changed direction in my strategy. However I consider this shift more as a course correction than complete anarchy or revolution for the reasons stated below.

"Don’t try to become a professional in on day, or one week or even one year. It is too hard a discipline, and will crush those who do not respect its requirements. Rather, accept that you are in the midst of a journey to handicapping excellence, and that you must master many skills along the way."
(Schmidt, Hambleton, Pizzolla, Sartin – Pace Makes The Race)

I’m a good handicapper but I’ve tried to cram it all in a short period of time without recognising that the secret to success is not contained within a process or books.

Having this information is great, as a foundation, unfortunately I have let this additional knowledge take me in different directions hoping that I would find handicapping nirvana. The key skill I have now realised is that winning comes from within and not from books and in essence I need to approach this game with fluidity instead of rigidity. “knowing too much” and applying ridged logic in horse racing can be dangerous to your wealth (and health from a psychological point of view)

Its now time to move from “how to”, to a state of mind and approach I feel all professionals have .. knowing “what to do” and “when to do it.”