Southwell - 15 Dec 2005

Course Description
The All Weather fibresand surface is much slower than the polytrack used at Lingfield and Wolverhampton and places great demands on stamina. Form on fibresand is often not reproduced on polytrack and vice versa. Generally soft ground turf performers do better on fibresand. The course also favours horses that like to race prominently

Two races under consideration today

12:30 5f - Betdirect Only 10 Days Til Xmas Nursery (Class 5) 2yo

Over the few weeks my observations have indicated that over 5 furlongs with the stalls placed on the outside, runners drawn close to the rail have had a hard time of things. With the main contenders drawn high (Lucayos [10], Garlogs [9]) Amber Glory could confirm her superiority based on various form lines, 2yo record of trainer Karl Burke and jockey who should be fresh and rejuvenated after his honeymoon ( bookies favourite for the All-Weather Championship Neil Callan).

There is lots of pace in the race and if stamina becomes a factor then on speed ratings Egyptian Lord should have the advantage given his performance over 7 furlongs recently. He lost his action in the final stages of that race and after review (courtesy of ATR video research on their website) I suspect that tiredness was a factor as breeding suggests a preference for 5/6 furlongs. Therefore the drop back in trip today should not inconvenience.

1:00 1m 4f - Press Red To Bet On ITVi Handicap (Class 5) 3yo+

Piper General is totally unexposed in handicaps and might be one to follow after recent wins in a Maiden at Southwell and apprentice handicap at Wolverhampton however, the Racing Post odd compilers are not wetting my appetite with a predicted SP of 13/8 Anything above a price of 2/1 before the off would automatically trigger a bet.

I was watching ATR StateSide recently and the American commentator used a phrase to describe a situation when a punter takes a chance on a long shot, “cliff jump”.

Well I am going to take a cliff jump in the selection of Beauchamp Trump. My reasons are as follows.

Trance is dropping back in trip and draw statistics indicate that stall 1 is the coffin box.

By the trainers own admission Khanjar is a frustrating type, Efrhina loves it around here but she steps up in class and will be above her ceiling, Oldenway, Nabir, Mossmann Gorge, Sovietta are all eliminated based ability to see out the trip and other factors (poor form of horse, jockey, trainer or a combination of all three).

Beauchamp Trump has been a frustrating sought over his career thus far but should take to the fibresand surface on breeding and will have no stamina doubts (campaigned over staying distances thus far). He takes a drop in grade today based on his last race, but we will never know if he was a contender as he was brought down in final stages of the race.

Gerald Butler has made the 125 mile journey to Southwell twice in the last two years. Both horses were beaten so this may be a last throw of the dice on this surface as previous experiments on polytrack have failed to bring about improvement. Hopefully Beauchamp Trump has recovered and is fully wound up to take his part in this race as he is the only horse from the Butler stable running today.

However before I take my plunge, I’ll review the market Betfair to determine signs of stable confidence in Piper General or Beauchamp Trump.

Risk averse, me? Yep!!