Wolverhampton - 12:35 (9 Dec 2005)

5f 20yds - Press Red To Bet On ITVi Handicap (Class 6) 3yo+

Draw Bias - 5f
Stalls 1 - 6 won 7 of 11 races 63%, a lower percentage than that of the previous 12 months

Analysis
The BHB have put together a tricky 46-52 handicap in the first at Dunstall Park. In fact it’s an absolute mine field given that banded runners are mixing it with low grade handicappers. However given the relatively strong draw bias and plenty of pace, I expect this race to be taken by a closer drawn low. Shortlisted runners are

Henry Tun [1] – Form book indicates that he is not competitive above a handicap mark of 50. Runs off 51 today, a closer on pace analysis and is drawn in poll position so might be worth a small investment at current market prices in an open event.

Lady Pekan [2] – Better on fibresand

Mambazo [3] – Relatively speaking in the context of this race, a step up in class. Has only won once in 19 starts so not one to get too excited about. Market leader so no value in an open contest. Has beaten and has been beaten by Mind Alert. Both weighted to run an equal race.

New Options [4] – High up on speed ratings but a horse that is hard to win with but Wolverhampton seems to bring out his best form. Jockey/stable are also in form. Only concern is return after 60 days course absence.

Mind Alert [5] - Solid trainer, jockey form. A contender based on recent 3rd last time out. Interesting on pace profile (a likely closer)

St Ivian [6] - High on speed ratings but preference for 6 furlongs+

New Options and Mind Alert will form my two against the field.