Warts n All (11 Dec 2005)

Punting life is progressing well.

It seems that I am well ahead of completing most of my objectives and goals for 2005/2006. One objective that is well ahead of plan is mastering betting psychology.

A semi-professional punter advised me to read “Six Secretes of Successful Bettors” and after one pass through the book; I must admit my whole approach to betting has completely changed. I am about to the read the book again (given that there was so much information to absorb first time through) but chapter 6 “It’s one long game” (pro gamblers know how to handle their emotions as well as their money) is a revelation. For example, the following quote resonated with my emotional experiences thus far:

“After that day with the huge error, the lesson that comes from it is: no matter what failures or what successes you have for that day, once you walk out of that track (read racecourse) or that simulcast outlet (read bookie), its yesterdays news and its only really meaningful if you can learn from it for future races.

To sit there and think you are a genius because you won so much, or a dope (read mug) because you made a mistake, is wrong. There is no sense in beating yourself up. Because I had the ability to stop focusing on a large error, I enabled myself to have a really good day the next day”
Dave Cacuna – American Professional Gambler

I wish I had the benefit of these words last year!

On the All Weather front I have taken my approach to the next level with the addition of new speed ratings to the selection process (from a source who wishes to remain anonymous). Coupled with some database software I’ve resurrected from a previous attempt to computerise my selection process, I now can compare the relative merits of each horse graphically.

Experimentation Saturday yielded some very promising results, further experimentation continues tomorrow.

In terms of a process to accommodate the new ratings, the approach will be to determine

1. Which horse is ‘best-in’ at the weights (ratings)

2. Which horse is best suited to the race conditions (form book – draw, going preference, class ceiling, recent race comments, unexposed horses??)

3. Who is the fastest (speed ratings - overall, course, distance; pace profiles)

4. Why is the horse running today (trainer record, aims objectives, recent statistics)

and

5. What does the market think (odds on offer, value selection)

As there are very few all weather races of interest this week, I will use the spare time to analyse forthcoming races for some speculative ante-post bets.

I thought that I had found a banker in the Welsh Grand National in the selection of Control Man but with the Martin Pipe stable under a cloud after Saturdays woeful performances I fully expect Control Mans odds to drift ante post so its back to the drawing board to determine another selection.

In the Stan James King George VI Chase at Sandown, the fact that the race has been switched from its normal venue of Kempton and the fact that the main protagonists and Cheltenham festival contenders have not impressed so far this season. A bold statement but the King George looks an open event and there may be value backing an outsider. We shall see.