Southwell - 1:30 (24 Jan 2005)
5f - Betdirect On Tennis Banded Stakes (Class 7) 3yo+
What! Betting in a banded stakes race I must be losing my marbles?
Maybe not … Over five furlongs there is a positive bias for horses drawn in single figures. Horses drawn close to the stands side rail have a poor record.
The favourite “Miracle Ridge” is drawn in stall 13 and although he tops all relevant ratings given the poor draw stats for the top three stalls and short price, in my mind he is a “false favourite” and offers an attractive lay opportunity.
Over 5 furlongs at Southwell, as the number of runner’s increase, those drawn low are positioned closer to the dead part of the track, the far rail.
After review of the relevant stats and facts for those with single figure draws:
Boanerges is eliminated due to his close proximity to the far rail. However if Robert Winston can ensure he breaks well and position Boanerges toward the middle of the track then I could be left with egg on my face.
Chamarel is interesting based on jockey booking, but is an all-weather debutant; the stats are poor this type of runner. Freshwinds is relatively unexposed and has the good pace figures but there have been no winners from his maiden races thus far according “Race-check” so he is eliminated from consideration.
Shirley Oaks is also eliminated based on pace figures (hold up performer). Off Hire is highly tried on this surface. From his recent races there have been 4 winners and 4 places. Well drawn and with good pace figures, at current odds a definite each-way opportunity (small stakes).
Katie Killane odds of 66/1 last time out does not inspire confidence in addition to poor trainer form at Southwell. Leahs Pride’s is relatively unexposed on fibresand but her trainer has good form here in addition to excellent pace figures and draw position. Worth a punt.
Feminist will need to improve to beat Leahs Pride and Sergeant Slipper has poor pace figures.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 1/24/2006 09:25:00 am
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Chamarel is now a non-runner (stall 2) which might make it easier for Boanerges to move toward the middle of the track and now brings him into contention.
The first three home were all drawn low.
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Those drawn low dominated here, with the high-drawn horses struggling throughout to get competitive.
BOANERGES, a Lingfield winner in this grade last month and a creditable fourth when drawn 13 here last week, was never far away from his favoured berth on this occasion and asserted his superiority in the closing stages.
The free-running Freshwinds had travelled well through the race but was basically outstayed by the winner over the last 150 yards. This was only his fourth race and he should be open to improvement as he gains in strength and experience.
Shirley Oaks, dropping back in trip, found the pace a bit hot but finished well enough, while Beamsley Beacon was also doing some good work at the finish, faring best of those drawn high.
Miracle Ridge, a winner here three weeks ago, was an uneasy favourite and his poor running was the subject of a stewards' inquiry. He was not best away, was soon being scrubbed along and started hanging right. He went sharply right at halfway and was immediately eased, being allowed to come home in his own time. Rider Pat Cosgrave told the stewards that the horse had lost his action, and this explanation was noted.
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