Wolverhampton - 21 Jan 2006

The focus of today is the 3 7furlongs races on the card as this is a specialist distance

In terms of the draw during Sept to Dec, stalls 1 - 6 won 19 of 24 races 79% (ref – www.startingstalls.co.uk) but detailed analysis has indicated that the bias may be swinging toward those drawn mid low to high (from stall 4 upwards) will stalls 11, 4, 9 and 6 winning in 7 furlong handicaps in January.

Before finalising my selections I took the opportunity to watch the early races on the card. Today the track seems testing and horses running off the pace are finding it difficult to make up ground. The kick back is also worse than normal.

3:30 7f 32yds - Betdirect Freephone 0800 211 222 Handicap (Div I) (Class 5)

It hard to see beyond the shortlist of Kindlelight Debut, Kensington and Holiday Cocktail.

Holiday Cocktail has competed well against both rivals but the negative is that horses birthed stall 1 have not won since Aug 2005. A strange fact given that this distance usually favours those drawn low. However the stable does like a touch or too so any market moves will be watched with interest.

My gut feel says that Kensington is better over 6 furlongs. Therefore Kindlelight Debut who is a course/distance specialist, tops relevant ratings and is drawn close to the pace in stall 2 should be the selection but given that he is the market leader I shall leave this races alone – no bet.

4:05 7f 32yds - wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap (Class 6) 4yo+

Again the obvious selection is Soft Focus, but speed ratings also point toward the selection of Taminoula who is well handicapped, steps up to a preferred distance(all wining from over 7 furlongs) and drawn close to the pace in stalls 7,8 and 9. Interesting jockey booking. A chance is also taken with Doctor’s Cave who shaped as one who is returning to form in a claimer last time out and has the correct pace profile for todays conditions.

4:35 7f 32yds - Betdirect Freephone 0800 211 222 Handicap (Div II) (Class 5) 4yo

A dire race in the lucky last. No pace in the race so I expect a tactical battle and Robert Winston to land the spoils with Tuscarora who is a course and distance winner, well handicapped and figures prominently on speed ratings. The issue is that Tuscarora’s running style indicates that he is a hold up performer so, for added insurance I will take a chance on Lincolneurocruiser who also has the right pace profile for todays track conditions.