Lingfield - 3:00 (4th Feb 2006)
5f - betdirect.co.uk Handicap (Class 2) 4yo+
Contenders
Les Arcs, Fyodor
Up for consideration were
Dancing Mystery, Fromsong, Moayed
5/2 Les Arcs, 100/30 Fyodor, 9/2 Dancing Mystery, 11/2 Fromsong, 7/1 Moyayed 20/1 Bar.
After watching reruns of 5 furlongs races at Lingfield, I’ve convinced (or deluded) myself that draw and pace are the key factors for this race due to the course configuration.
Runners drawn wide are disadvantaged if the pace horses are drawn low. Due to the close proximity of the first bend they are forced to drop in behind the pace, wait on the base stretch, then on the final bend it’s a case of trying to pick off tried horses. Unfortunately for them, the front runner winning percentage is high at this distance (unlike the other distances at Lingfield), so those at the front of the pack have the advantage.
Therefore in this race, horse that will make the early pace drawn low are Dancing Mystery [stall 2] and Les Arcs [stall 4]. Zarzu [stall 1] will start slowly so expect Dancing Mystery to led the way, and Les Arcs to get first run at the line, Fydor and Fromsong (drawn wide) will have to pass the poorly rated horses (The Jobber, Undeterred, One More Round) who will cause traffic problems as they get tired.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 2/04/2006 11:03:00 am
1 comments
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1 Comments:
A terrific performance from LES ARCS, who defied a career-high mark (6lb higher than for his recent Wolverhampton win) on his first try over this minimum trip.
His connections were keen to emphasise afterwards how much natural speed this horse hasand he confirmed that opinion with a gutsy display to get on top in the final half furlong under top weight. He will now be aimed at a five-furlong conditions event here on Winter Derby day.
Fyodor has made great strides on the all-weather this winter and again ran a cracker in defeat. He was defeated by Fromsong over this course and distance two starts back but reversed that form on 7lb-better terms and remains one to keep on the right side of in these events.
One More Round, who is a shadow of the horse who was competing in Group races for Dermot Weld, appeared to appreciate the drop back to five furlongs, staying on strongly in the final furlong. This was by far his best recent effort and his new connections may be starting to get to thebottom of him.
Fromsong, who was unusually not ridden prominently, was another to make good headway out wide in the home straight but he is seen to better effect when allowed to dominate, as he showed when landing a similar event here in November (clocking a red-hot time).
Moayed, another to be trying this trip for the first time, was finishing to good effect. He will appreciate being stepped back up in trip and remains a formidable opponent.
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