Southwell - 3:50 (2 Feb 2006)
3:50 6f - Littlewoods Betdirect Conditions Stakes
As this is a conditions event, BHB ratings will be used to sort the wheat from the chaff.
Contenders are
Pinchbeck, Desperate Dan
Up for consideration were
Qabar, Cummisky, Rafferty, Wessex
Decided to it was time take a full tilt at creating a tissue for the race; this time I decided to price up the first six in my shortlist to 100% (as suggested by Mark Cotton – One Hundred Hints for Better Betting)
9/4 Pinchbeck, 4/1 Qadar, 9/2 Desperate Dan, 13/2 Cummisky, 9/1 Rafferty, 11/1 Wessex
I may have made a mistake in making Qadar second favourite on my tissue, but during analysis I could not find a compelling reason on all known factors (even breeding for Soutwell) to throw him off the shortlist even though he ran badly last time out. The only runner from the Littmoden yard running at Southwell today, up there on ratings he remains of interest at the prices.
On pace figures “they won be messing about” as tommo would say. I suspect Desperate Dan from the widest draw (13) will drop in and come from off the pace just like his previous race. However not proven over a “testing” 6 furlongs I’m not sure if his obvious class or stamina is enough to win. Especially at the prices..
On the upgrade is Pinchbeck. A 6 furlong specialist, recent wins over course and distance point to him being the value selection.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 2/02/2006 11:41:00 am
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Quite a competitive event with CUMMISKEY putting up a smart effort to concede weight to these rivals. He had run well in both of his recents starts here and looked well drawn and was given a good ride by Robert Winston who had his mount racing towards the inside and produced his mount to lead inside the final furlong. The handicapper will not take kindly to this improved effort but he, as his trainer suggested, he was picking up a £20,000 event.
Wessex raced towards the outside and kept on well in the final furlong and, although he has won over this course and distance, may well do even better when returned to seven furlongs.
Pinchbeck is another who has been a revelation on this surface and put in another good effort as he stayed on well in the closing stages. The handicapper has a firm grip on him but he continues to run well.
Rafferty was soon blazing the trail and his effort subsided when he was flanked by the winner and runner-up over a furlong out but he ran well enough and there will be other days for him.
Pawan ran well too as he stayed on after being outpaced but the favourite Desperate Dan never looked that happy on this occasion and was staying on when it was all too late.
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