Lingfield - 3:30 (1 Feb 2006)
Betdirect Co Uk Handicap Stakes (4 ) 1m Polytrack 4yo+ 66-80
Back to basic’s in this race by focusing more on traditional handicapping factors such as class, age, recent form. Factors such as pace and draw bias were not eliminated but reduced in importance. Here goes
Contenders are
Wavertree Warrior, Swift Oscar and Kindlelight Debut
Up for consideration were
Northern Desert, Out for a Stroll
No perceived draw bias in the race and there is enough pace for a truly run race (Kabeer and Goose Chase expected to contest the early led)
I’m still getting my head around producing a betting forecast. Again I developed a market using the Racing Post's forecast and then compared mine with the best prices available.
4/1 Wavertree Warrior, 9/2 Swift Oscar, Kindlelight Debut, 7/1 Northern Desert, Out for a Stroll, 8/1 Quantum Leap, 10/1 Bar
Swift Oscar was unlucky last time out behind Northern Dancer and looks to be coming into form; however current form of stable is off putting.
Kindlelight Debut is from the same stable as Wavertree Warrior. Was earmarked as the favourite in the overnight racing post tissue but given his course form reads 0/1/10 (win/place/run) this was puzzling.
The only horse offering value is Wavertree Warrior. 1lbs above a winning handicap, professional (and inform) jockey takes the ride today, ticks for course, distance and trainer form was backed at overnight prices on Betfair. As I write, noted the value has all but gone so this would be a no play race if I had not done my homework last might.
In reviewing my scribbled attempts at a tissue for this race it seems like my initial attempts were closer to actuality. Maybe I’m getting something right??
posted by Slipperytoad @ 2/01/2006 07:57:00 am
2 comments
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2 Comments:
B+ for short listed selections. D for final outcome. As the price of Wavertree Warrior drifted in the betting ring, I knew my fate was sealed
A decent handicap in which Goose Chase and Kabeer set a strong pace, contributing to a winning time more than a second quicker than the Racing Post standard.
The pace clearly suited top-weight NORTHERN DESERT much better than the messy race in which he was an unlucky third at the weekend and he ran out a worthy winner, quickening up nicely after being held up on the inside.
Kindlelight Debut was bidding to complete a four-timer after three wins at Wolverhampton. Despite having been placed only once in 12 previous starts here she failed only narrowly. She was more or less upsides the winner a furlong out but was rather outspeeded before running on too late. She was 12lb higher than for her first two wins but the Handicapper might notquite have got hold of her and she clearly remains in great form.
Wavertree Warrior ran well but couldn't go with the first two in the closing stages.
Swift Oscar, who finished upsides the winner at the weekend, improved up the inside to have his chance and had no excuse.
Luis Melendez has plummeted in the handicap from 81 to 67 and has joined a new stable which has made a promising start. He was a springer in the market here but the trip might have been too sharp for him.
Quantum Leap got keen in mid-race and never got into a challenging position this time.
Selective was very keen from the word go on the heels of the two leaders. All three finished well beaten, but Kabeer had an additional excuse as he had been offthe track nearly eight months and may have been carrying a bit more condition than usual.
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