Lingfield 2:05 - (28th Jan 2006)
7f - betdirect.co.uk Handicap (Class 4) 4yo+
The key factors here are a top 6 draw positions (Sept to Dec 2005, the Top 6 stalls won 14 of 22 races 63%) and prominent running style based on races observed earlier this week.
I wont make the mistake of just focusing on the well drawn horses (the big mistake of the week d’oh!); using the “One Factor” profile (Mark Cramer – Value handicapping), the draw will act as the key variable (along with other handicapping factors such as ground, class, speed ratings etc) in creating the shortlist.
I’m not confident yet in pricing up a race to 100% so a half-way house will be take the highest rated, form a market using the Racing Post's forecast and then compare that with the best prices available.
3/1 Chief Exec, 6/1 Perfect Story, 6/1 Outer Hebrides, 7/1 Red Romeo, 8/1 Prince Tum Tum, 8/1 Who´s Winning
Of those offering value compared to early prices
Who’s Winning has not won over 7 furlongs so a rick on my part. If he can overcome the draw bias Red Romeo is well rated on speed and handicap ratings but has 70 day course absense to overcome, unexposed, only negative is low draw! Perfect Story is well drawn has a ‘held up’ running style but is dropping in class and preferred distance, Chief Exec has a recent win, well drawn.
Perfect Story is the selection along with Chief Exec
posted by Slipperytoad @ 1/28/2006 10:23:00 am
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Racing Post Comments
A return to form for the inconsistent HAYYANI who responded positively to the application of the first-time eye-shield and produced a strong late run to grab Chief Exec close home. The return to this trip helped, having never been able to get a blow in over 6f here last time and finding a mile too far the time before. His patchy overall profile does however indicate that he's no good thing to follow up on this success next time but he's relatively light raced. He's got the ability.
Outer Hebrides ran his best race for some time, stepping up considerably on his modest reappearance effort at Wolverhampton with the customary headgear back on. He's struggled off marks this high so far but this was a run full of promise and if he can reproduce thiseffort he will soon find another race coming his way.
Chief Exec, who has twice been successful over this course and distance made his bid for glory just inside the final furlong, quickening clear but he was found wanting at the death and was passed by the front two close home. He needs holding up for as long as possible over this trip but remains in good form.
Ever Cheerful seems to be effective over a variety of trips and again ran well, despite facing tougher opposition than when beatingmodest opposition over 5f here two starts back and again going close over 6f here last time.
Prince Tum Tum was a disappointment, breaking slowly and never looking happy, having to be niggled along early. This was not his true running.
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