Glorious Goodwood - 3:15 (4th Aug 2006)

3:15 1m - totesport Mile (Heritage Handicap) (formerly known as The Golden Mile) (Class 2)

This race has one indisputable fact

“No winners have emerged from lower than stall 8 in 10 years”

Typically the winner was berth in stall 12 and above.

As I found to my cost at Beverley earlier on in the week it pays to take a pragmatic view or contrarian of the draw bias sometimes but on this occasion given the course configuration, those berthed low will use up too much petrol trying to establish an early position and this is their downfall.

It also pays to race prominently. As Nayyir found earlier this week, hold up horses in big field handicaps at Goodwood are totally disadvantaged. By the time they make their challenge they meet trouble in running and then it’s all over. Sergeant Cecil was a prime example yesterday.

Turning our attention to those drawn high, Spectait is an obvious selection for the shortlist however, it’s at times like this I wish I knew about breeding and prodigy preferences. On bare form, Spectait’s going preference is soft and all-weather “standard”. Using the premise “never back a horse to do something it’s never done before” on todays going and market price he is overlooked on this occasion.

As a 3yo Dunelight’s predecessors indicate that the hustle and bustle of this race will be too much for him.

Pace analysis indicates that Dunelight will try and make the running, but I suspect that he’ll be pressed by Shot to Fame, Prince Of Thebes and My Paris drawn low. What happens next will determine if tonight I’m having Pot Noddle or Sweet and Sour Chicken with Fried Rice.

I’m predicting that Spectait, Paper Talk, Red Spell or Capable Guest running just behind the pace will close and take the race in the final furlong. I’ve already dismissed the chances of Spectait, Paper Talk was not so easy as he does not carry a penalty for his win at Newbury, likes a stiff/galloping tracks and could improve for step up to 1 mile. But berthed in stall 8???

Capable Guest has been running extremely well as indicated by his last three runs

. Ascot – “Led group 1f out until hdd last stride, no ch with stands side”
. Sandown – “met traffic problems but best run for some time”
. Newbury – “just btn from a low draw & best run for some time”

His turn is close however, his running style indicates that he could encounter traffic problems and I’m hoping for an enterprising ride from the inform John Egan today.

The one I am really bullish on is Red Spell and I can see why he has been tipped by Tom Segal.

With a wins/places/run record since 2001 of 1/2/4 at Goodwood, he is also well handicapped on All-Weather form. Berthed stall 14 between the pace of Dunelight and Shot to Fame, he can track the leaders and cast his spell in the final stages of the race.

His price of 20/1 was definitely too big and I can see why he is my and pricewise's selection.